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Trade & commodities

Nine global commodities are priced live by world supply and demand. If you're a net exporter you cash in when prices spike; if you're an importer, shocks and war bite — and export controls are a double-edged sword.

How it works

Each of the nine commodities has a base price and volatility. Every quarter the sim aggregates world supply and demand, computes the imbalance ((demand − supply)/supply, clamped −0.6 to 0.9), and moves the price by imbalance (×0.06) plus a mean-reversion pull toward base (×0.04) plus random noise. Prices are floored at 30% and capped at 500% of base.

Your position matters: for each commodity your net (production − consumption) times its deviation from base builds a trade score. A positive score (net exporter in a high market) nudges GDP up and adds to the treasury; a negative score (importer) costs you — though higher trade-agreement levels discount your imports by 3% / 8% / 14% at Lv1/2/3.

Supply is fragile. If a major producer (world share ≥ 8%) goes to war, there's a 10% chance per quarter of a supply shock that slashes that commodity's supply by 32% for five quarters — a classic oil-crisis spike. Export controls let you withhold your surplus to starve rivals, but you forfeit the export revenue and anger importers.

Formulas

Supply/demand imbalance

imb = clamp((demand − supply) / supply, −0.6, 0.9)

Price update

price ×= 1 + imb×0.06 + (base − price)/base × 0.04 + noise; clamped to [base×0.3, base×5.0]

Trade score

score = Σ over commodities of net × (price/base − 1), net = production − consumption

Score effect

GDP ×= clamp(1 + score×0.0005, 0.996, 1.004); treasury += score × 0.05 × (1 − importDiscount)

War supply shock

producer share ≥ 8% & at war → 10%/q chance: supply drops 32% for 5 quarters

Key numbers

9 (oil 80, gas 45, coal 28, steel 55, copper 85, rare 130, uranium 100, lithium 115, grain 32)

Commodities

30% – 500% of base

Price band

3% / 8% / 14%

Import discounts (Lv1/2/3)

−32% supply, 5 quarters, 10%/q

War shock

≥ 8% world share

Shock producer threshold

needs 0.5 coal, up to −40% output

Steel→coal chain

How to play

▸Know your net position per commodity: exporters should welcome high prices, while importers should lock in trade agreements (up to −14%) and secure supply lines before a crisis.
▸Watch wars involving major producers — a shock cuts supply 32% for over a year, spiking prices; stockpile or diversify beforehand if you're an importer.
▸Export controls can strangle a rival dependent on your commodity, but you lose that export income and sour relations with every importer — use them as a weapon, not a habit.
▸Steel producers need coal: a coal shock or shortage throttles your steel output by up to 40%, so secure the input, not just the finished good.

💵Inflation & idle cash Megaprojects🚀

More in this system

📈Growth & catch-up 💰Tax strain 📊Budget & sectors 🏦Debt & the risk premium 💵Inflation & idle cash 🚀Megaprojects